It’s a fair question to ask before spending money on a home security system: do alarm systems deter burglars, or is that mostly a sales pitch built on fear? Researchers have studied it. A criminologist at Rutgers University analyzed years of real crime data, and a separate team interviewed 422 convicted burglars to understand exactly how they choose targets. What the evidence shows is more specific than a simple yes, and more persuasive for it.
How Burglars Choose Their Targets
Most residential break-ins are not planned. The University of North Carolina Charlotte, in a study funded by the Alarm Industry Research and Education Foundation, surveyed 422 convicted burglars across North Carolina, Kentucky, and Ohio. About 41 percent described their crimes as spur-of-the-moment decisions. They were not casing homes for weeks or studying entry points. They were making fast calculations about which house offered the easiest reward with the lowest chance of getting caught.
That calculation happens at the target-selection stage, before a burglar ever steps onto your property. They are reading visible signals: no car in the driveway, dark entry points, no security hardware in sight. When they spot a yard sign, a camera at the front door, or a keypad visible through a window, they process that information in real time.
The mechanism matters. Alarms do not primarily work by catching burglars in the act. They work by causing most burglars to choose a different house before anything happens. That is what the data shows.
What Convicted Burglars Actually Say
The UNC Charlotte study is the most direct evidence available on this question, because it comes from people who had actually committed the crimes. The results are specific enough to be useful.
Approximately 83 percent of the 422 convicted burglars said they would check for an alarm before attempting a break-in. About 60 percent said they would move on to a different target if they discovered a system was in place. That is not a small segment who might be deterred. It is the majority, making that decision before entry is even attempted.
The deterrence does not stop at target selection. More than 40 percent said they would abandon a burglary already in progress if they triggered an active alarm. Once a monitored signal is going out, the risk calculation changes fast. And roughly 80 percent said they would never attempt to disable an alarm, preferring to leave instead.
The study also covered cameras. Nearly 60 percent of respondents said the presence of visible cameras factored into whether they would select a target. For homeowners weighing whether cameras add meaningful deterrence beyond the alarm itself, that number is a direct answer.
One detail relevant to Habitec’s service area: the study included Ohio burglars in its sample. These are not findings from a distant region. They reflect criminal behavior patterns in the same state where Habitec installs and monitors systems.
The Neighborhood Effect (A Finding Most People Don’t Know About)
Most coverage of this topic focuses on the UNC study and stops there. A separate piece of research tells a different part of the story.
Dr. Seungmug Lee at the Rutgers University School of Criminal Justice analyzed five years of crime data from 2001 to 2005 in cooperation with the Newark Police Department. It was the first study of its kind to isolate alarm systems as a variable while scientifically controlling for other factors. The findings confirmed a steady decrease in residential burglaries as alarm system registrations increased. But the more significant finding was what happened to crime in neighboring homes.
Alarm systems did not displace burglaries to the house next door. They reduced crime in the surrounding area. Neighborhoods with higher alarm density experienced fewer burglaries overall. The study authors attributed this to burglars avoiding entire streets or neighborhoods where visible security was prevalent, rather than simply shifting attention to the nearest unprotected home.
That reframes what a home security system actually accomplishes. It is not only personal protection. A homeowner who installs a monitored alarm system provides some measure of protection to the neighbors around them as well.
Does It Matter If the System Is Monitored?
Yes, and the distinction matters in a specific way. A bells-only alarm makes noise when triggered. Whether anyone responds depends on a neighbor hearing it, deciding it is real, and calling 911. That can happen quickly. It can also not happen at all.
A monitored system sends a signal to a 24/7 central station, where a live operator reviews the event and dispatches emergency responders. The Rutgers study, which found the burglary-reduction effects described above, specifically examined monitored alarm systems. The logic is direct: most burglars plan to spend under ten minutes inside a home. A monitored system compresses the window between trigger and police response in a way a bells-only alarm cannot.
Habitec’s central station monitoring operates locally in Toledo and is staffed around the clock. When an alarm triggers, a live operator in Ohio responds. That is a meaningful contrast to a national outsourced call center, and it is why the Rutgers study’s findings apply directly to a monitored setup rather than a standalone device.
What Makes a Security System More Effective as a Deterrent
A few factors strengthen deterrence beyond simply having a system installed.
Visibility matters at the target-selection stage. Yard signs and window decals signal a protected property before a burglar gets close enough to look for anything else. The UNC study confirms it: burglars are actively reading those signals during target selection.
Cameras at entry points add another layer. Front door placement is particularly relevant because most burglars ring the doorbell or knock before attempting entry. A camera positioned there, combined with an alarm, addresses both signals burglars process when choosing a target.
Monitoring turns a noisemaker into a dispatch trigger. A professionally installed system with door contacts, window contacts, and interior motion sensors also leaves fewer exploitable gaps than a self-installed setup where coverage may be incomplete.
One additional benefit: a monitored home security system typically qualifies homeowners for discounts on homeowners insurance, which offsets a portion of the system cost over time.
The Honest Answer
Alarm systems are not a guarantee against every possible break-in. A highly determined professional burglar who has researched a specific property presents a different threat than the typical opportunistic offender. No single security measure eliminates all risk.
What alarms are well-suited for is the type of burglar most likely to target a residential property. The UNC study found that roughly 90 percent of respondents cited drugs or money as their primary motivation, and their method was to find an easy target quickly. A visible, monitored alarm system changes the risk calculation for that offender directly.
Solid locks, adequate exterior lighting, and a monitored alarm system together reduce the conditions that opportunistic burglars rely on. The research on whether home security systems deter burglars is consistent. For the opportunistic offender who accounts for most residential break-ins, they do.
Knowing what the research shows is a useful starting point. Understanding what the right system looks like for your specific home is the next step. Habitec offers free home security evaluations with no obligation. A consultant will walk through your property, identify the entry points and coverage gaps that matter most, and design a system around your actual situation. To schedule your free evaluation, contact Habitec today.
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